Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings: When Do Leaders Matter?

出自普立茲獎得主、全球暢銷數百萬冊的經典巨作《槍炮、病菌與鋼鐵》作者之手，這是一項橫跨政治、宗教、商業和體育領域的領導力里程碑式研究——旨在解碼領導者如何以及為何至關重要。

一個人能改變世界嗎？ 在備受讚譽且極具影響力的著作《槍炮、病菌與鋼鐵》和《大崩壞》中，賈德·戴蒙改變了我們對文明興衰原因的理解。如今，在《利潤、先知、教練與國王》（Profits, Prophets, Coaches and Kings，暫譯）中，他研究了貫穿古今的領導者，以回答這個問題：個體的行為真的能影響歷史嗎？還是人類其實受制於更宏大的歷史、技術、文化和地理力量，遠遠超出了個體的影響，無論這些個體看起來多麼強大？

1930年3月13日，一輛卡車衝進十字路口，直奔另一輛轎車的右前門而去。這輛由司機駕駛的轎車上的乘客，恰好是阿道夫·希特勒。如果卡車撞上車門，希特勒就會被壓死。但司機及時加速，希特勒得以倖存。如果當時司機的反應慢了一點，數千萬人還會在猶太大屠殺和第二次世界大戰中喪生嗎？有些人認為希特勒在邪惡能力上是獨一無二的，而另一些人則認為，戰後強加給德國的嚴苛條件注定了戰爭的爆發。

像希特勒、柴契爾夫人、成吉思汗、馬克·祖克柏、比爾·貝利奇克或基督這樣的領導者，真的改變了我們的世界嗎？如果是的話，一個領導者需要具備什麼樣的特質和環境才能留下他們的印記？

戴蒙深入研究了一群名聲顯赫或鮮為人知的領導者的生平與生涯——從波札那總統塞雷茨·卡馬、環保主義者瑞秋·卡森，到傳奇的UCLA籃球教練約翰·伍登——揭示了領導力的有效性是如何由一系列複雜且相互關聯的因素所決定的。理解這些成功與失敗，以及領導者所把握（或未能把握）的機遇，闡明了當今領導者的影響力，並幫助我們反思我們的選票、我們的信仰、我們的熱情，以及那些恰好掌舵我們這艘船的人的價值。

憑藉著與戴蒙經典暢銷書同樣非凡的宏大視野，《利潤、先知、教練與國王》帶領讀者踏上一段穿梭於人類最知名人物生平的豐富旅程，以揭示時間、地點和個人如何匯聚在一起，從而改變歷史的走向。

From the author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning, multimillion-copy bestselling classic Guns, Germs and Steel,  a landmark study of leadership across politics, religion, business, and sports—seeking to decode how and why leaders matter.

Can one person change the world?

In his acclaimed and influential books Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse, Jared Diamond transformed our understanding of what makes civilizations rise and fall. Now, in Profits, Prophets, Coaches and Kings, he studies leaders throughout time to answer the question: do the actions of individuals truly influence history? Or is humanity subject to larger historical, technological, cultural, geographical forces, far beyond the influence of individuals, no matter how powerful they may seem?

On 13 March 1930, a truck sped into an intersection, headed straight for another car’s right front door. The passenger of this chauffeur-driven car happened to be Adolf Hitler. If the truck had hit the door, Hitler would have been crushed and killed. But the chauffeur managed to accelerate, and Hitler survived. Would tens of millions of people have died in the Holocaust and World War Two if the chauffeur had been slower to react? Some believe Hitler was unique in his evil abilities, while others think the war was guaranteed by the harsh conditions imposed on Germany post-war.

Do leaders like Hitler, Margaret Thatcher, Genghis Khan, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Belichick, or Christ really change our world? If yes, what qualities and circumstances are required of a leader to make their mark?

Drawing on his deep study of the life and career of a diverse cast of leaders famous and obscure– from Botswana president Seretse Khama, to environmentalist Rachel Carson, to legendary UCLA basketball coach John Wooden–Diamond reveals how leadership effectiveness is determined by a range of complex interrelated factors. Understanding these successes and failures and the opportunities leaders did (or did not) seize illuminates the influence of today's leaders and helps us to reflect on the value of our votes, our faith, our passions, and the people who happen to steer our ship.

With the same remarkable scope of Diamond's classic bestsellers, Profits, Prophets, Coaches and Kings takes readers on a rich journey through the lives of humanity’s most well-known characters to reveal how time, place, and person can come together to change the course of history.