Tomorrow's People: The Future of Humanity in Ten Numbers | 誠品線上

Tomorrow's People: The Future of Humanity in Ten Numbers

內容簡介

內容簡介 《Tomorrow's People: The Future of Humanity in Ten Numbers》✰ 周日泰晤士報好評人口學著作出生、死亡和遷徙，人口變化的巨大力量造就了今日世界卻往往被低估。人口學學者莫蘭引用全球數據，透過十個指標闡明人口結構變化有如靜水流深左右了當前全球變革。人口變化的巨大力量——出生、死亡和遷移的平衡——造就了今天的世界。人口的改變會決定哪些國家終將成為超級大國，而哪些國家又永遠無法發揮影響力；人口的改變同時也讓某些經濟體在國際排行榜上名列前茅；而另外一些終落入任人宰割。 塑造我們過去和現在的力量正在塑造我們的未來。Paul Morland 通過十個具有啟發性的指標來說明這一點，從新加坡的生育率（一）到加泰羅尼亞的中位年齡（四十三），Paul Morland展示了強大但被低估的人口統計學，並通過它來觀察全球進行中的變化。書中談及西非國家，大家庭的趨勢與嬰兒死亡率下降有關，創造了有史以來最大的人口爆炸。而東亞和南歐國家幾代人的低出生率和預期壽命增加正在創造有史以來最高齡的人口。作者探索進行中的民族地理運動——預示著未來還會有更大規模的移民——這些運動在從根本上改變全球許多社會的文化、種族和宗教構成，並反過來產生政治反應，可以從多個方面觀察到英國脫歐導致唐納‧川普的崛起。 最後，本書提供了一個令人著迷、帶有啟發和發人深省的新興世界之旅，任何想了解未來世界的人絕對必讀！ The great forces of population change - the balance of births, deaths and migrations - have made the world what it is today. They have determined which countries are superpowers and which languish in relative obscurity, which economies top the international league tables and which are at best also-rans.The same forces that have shaped our past and present are shaping our future. Illustrating this through ten illuminating indicators, from the fertility rate in Singapore (one) to the median age in Catalonia (forty-three), Paul Morland shows how demography is both a powerful and an under-appreciated lens through which to view the global transformations that are currently underway.Tomorrow's People ranges from the countries of West Africa where the tendency towards large families is combining with falling infant mortality to create the greatest population explosion ever witnessed, to the countries of East Asia and Southern Europe where generations of low birth-rate and rising life expectancy are creating the oldest populations in history. Morland explores the geographical movements of peoples that are already under way - portents for still larger migrations ahead - which are radically changing the cultural, ethnic and religious composition of many societies across the globe, and in their turn creating political reaction that can be observed from Brexit to the rise of Donald Trump. Finally, he looks at the two underlying motors of change - remarkable rises in levels of education and burgeoning food production - which have made all these developments possible.Tomorrow's People provides a fascinating, illuminating and thought-provoking tour of an emerging new world. Nobody who wants to understand that world should be without it."

作者介紹

作者介紹 Paul MorlandDr. Paul Morland is a Senior Member of St Antony's College, University of Oxford. Educated at Oxford, he received his PhD from the University of London. He is the author of The Human Tide - How Population Shaped the Modern World, which has been translated into nine languages, and he has contributed articles on demography to newspapers in the UK and beyond. A dual UK and German citizen, Paul Morland lives in London with his wife and has three adult children.

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