內容簡介
內容簡介 橫跨企管與科普領域的專家、《如何秤出你的頭有多重》作者 威廉‧龐士東這次要告訴大家改變世界的方程式！ 18世界英國數學家貝葉斯發明了一個定理，應用概率論成就了前所未有的進步，這個定理後世稱之為「貝葉斯統計理論」，直到能夠處理龐大數字的電腦出現之前，此理論一直被廣為使用。 在大數據當道的現代，貝葉斯的理論卻再次成為數位時代經濟的關鍵，有趣的是，貝葉斯的理論甚至可以被用來計算外星人的存在，還有每個人都想問的「究竟人類還可以存活多久？」 龐士東訪問了許多意見領袖，為讀者理出一條思路，這個也許是造就矽谷的方程式，為何在現代變成了當代思維的關鍵點、挑戰了存在許久的認知，對於文化、人類未來有興趣的讀者必讀的一本書。From the author of Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?, a fascinating look at how an equation that foretells the future is transforming everything we know about life, business, and the universe.In the 18th century, the British minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers. Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes' formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy.But here's where things get really interesting: Bayes' theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the "many worlds" interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive?The Doomsday Calculation tells how Silicon Valley's profitable formula became a controversial pivot of contemporary thought. Drawing on interviews with thought leaders around the globe, it's the story of a group of intellectual mavericks who are challenging what we thought we knew about our place in the universe. The Doomsday Calculation is compelling reading for anyone interested in our culture and its future.
