How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle

橋水基金創辦人達利歐重磅新書

對美國經濟發出迫切警告

《原則》作者雷・達利歐(Ray Dalio)新作

《國家如何破產》(暫譯)

龐大的政府債務是否正在威脅我們的集體福祉？
債務的增長是否有極限？
像美國這樣的重要的國際準備貨幣國家，真的可能破產嗎？那會是什麼樣子？

數十年來，政治人物、政策制定者與投資人一直在討論這些問題，但始終難以找到確切答案。在這本突破性的著作中，雷・達里奧——這位預見了2008年全球金融危機與2010至2012年歐債危機的當代頂尖投資人——首次詳細解釋他所稱的「大型債務循環」(Big Debt Cycle)。
理解這一循環對政策制定者、投資人乃至一般大眾來說至關重要，因為它有助於我們掌握當前所處的位置，以及未來債務問題可能走向何方。根據達里奧的模型，面對美國、歐洲、日本與中國今日的債務挑戰，其實存在一些出乎意料的簡明解方。

《國家如何破產》(How Countries Go Broke)同時揭示了這些債務問題如何與其他重要力量息息相關——包括國內政治動盪、國際地緣衝突、自然災害(乾旱、水災、疫情)以及最關鍵的科技變革(尤其是人工智慧)。這些力量共同推動著世界秩序，發生達里奧所稱的「總體大循環」(Overall Big Cycle)變化。

本書讓你我更深入理解當今世界正在發生的轉變，以及我們應該如何應對。

“This book is a gift to humanity….Ray provides a solution to what is the biggest and most certain threat to our prosperity.” —Henry M. Paulson Jr.
“An invaluable resource for policymakers, investors, and citizens.” —Lawrence H. Summers
An urgent warning about the American economy from Ray Dalio, the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles.

Do big government debts threaten our collective well-being? Are there limits to debt growth? Can a big, important reserve currency country like the United States really go broke—and what would that look like?

For decades, politicians, policymakers, and investors have debated these questions, but the answers have eluded them. In this groundbreaking book, Ray Dalio, one of the greatest investors of our time who anticipated the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2010–12 European debt crisis, shares for the first time his detailed explanation of what he calls the “Big Debt Cycle.” Understanding this cycle is critical for helping policymakers, investors, and the general public grasp where we are and where we are headed with the debt issue. Dalio’s model points toward surprisingly straightforward solutions for dealing with the debt problems that the US, Europe, Japan, and China face today.

How Countries Go Broke also shows how these debt problems are related to the other forces—political within countries, geopolitical between countries, natural (droughts, floods, and pandemics), and technological (most importantly, AI)—that together are causing what Dalio calls the “Overall Big Cycle” changes in the world order. By reading this book, you will improve your understanding of what’s happening now and what to do about it.