Same as Ever: Timeless Lessons on Risk, Opportunity and Living a Good Life

關於金錢、歷史與人性不變的23件事

全球暢銷書《致富心態》作者全新力作
迎接難以預測的未來與種種人生挑戰最有效的新工具

人們在設立投資計畫時，都講求精確的數據、對未來的預測，以及合乎常理的邏輯。但是，我們很常看到的狀況是：結果不如預期、受到情緒影響而更動計畫、預測完全失準，或是被突如其來的事件打擊。

本書作者摩根‧豪瑟指出，與其拚命預測不確定的事件，我們應該花更多時間去理解恆常的行為。不論是投資或人生，都應該反其道而行：回頭看，而且視野要廣闊，並且專注在不曾改變的事物。

本書延續前作，作者以各式各樣極具說服力的案例，交織絕佳的故事編排手法，用最平實的敘述，帶讀者了解關於風險、機會、數據、誘因、情緒與人性的真實面。你可以從中學到：

• 要根據人的行為方式做預測，而不是根據特定事件做預測。
• 想要活得幸福快樂，管理期望非常重要。
• 股價是今天的數字乘以明天的故事。
• 無法測量與預測的事，在商業與投資領域是最強大的力量。
• 要知道股價高點在哪裡，唯一的辦法就是讓市場漲過頭。
• 最好的財務規畫是像悲觀主義者一樣儲蓄，並且像樂觀主義者一樣投資。
• 一項完美的能力，是以犧牲另一項攸關存亡的能力為代價。

每個人都想看到未來的商業、經濟、政治到社會趨勢，但我們都不擅於預測未來發生的事情，唯有當你不再執著於預測未知，專注在恆久不變的事，才能在人生與投資路上獲得最大的滿足與成就。

本書介出自遠見天下文化出版《一如既往: 不變的人性法則與致富心態》

From Morgan Housel, bestselling author of The Psychology of Money, stories about what people have always done, and will always do.

Everyone wants to see the future. Few are good at it. From business to economics, politics to social trends, we’re just not very good at predicting what happens next.

According to Morgan Housel, this is because we focus too much on what we think will change and not enough on what we know will stay the same.

If you traveled in time to 500 years ago or 500 years from now, you would be astounded at how much technology and medicine has changed. The geopolitical order would make no sense to you. The language and dialect may be completely foreign. But you’d notice people falling for greed and fear just like they do in our current world.

You’d see people persuaded by risk, jealousy, and tribal affiliations in ways that are familiar to you.
You’d see overconfidence and short-sightedness that reminds you of people's behavior today.
You’d find people seeking the secret to a happy life and trying to find certainty when none exists in ways that are so relatable.

When transported to an unfamiliar world, you’d spend a few minutes watching people behave and say, “Ah. I’ve seen this before. Same as ever.”

History is filled with surprises no one could have seen coming. But if we learn to see what doesn’t change, we can be more confident in our choices, no matter what the future brings.