Numbers Tell Stories: How Data Can Reveal the Surprising Truths about Our World

來自國際暢銷書作者，對揭示塑造我們世界隱藏力量的驚人數字進行了啟發性的剖析。

「或許沒有其他學者能像史密爾一樣，用數字描繪出這樣的景象。」——《衛報》

婚姻、牛奶和黑市告訴了我們關於人類現狀的什麼訊息？大多數人會說，根本沒什麼。但數據揭示了關於我們是誰、我們如何生活以及我們要去向何方的驚人真相。幾個世紀以來，我們一直給自己講述關於世界如何運作的故事——然而數據往往指向一個截然不同的現實。在《Numbers Tell Stories》一書中，瓦茨拉夫·史密爾展現了統計數據如何挑戰傳統思維，並照亮塑造我們生活的隱藏力量。

以婚姻為例。過去的人們難道不是在童年時期就被嫁娶了嗎？事實上，在十八世紀的法國，男性的結婚年齡中位數是 29 歲，女性是 27 歲——與今天並沒有太大差異。或者是壽命。我們應該看向日本以解開健康長壽的秘密嗎？也許吧——但在日本，只有五分之一的男女在老年時能保持完全獨立自理。即使是世界上最健康的國家，依然有很長的路要走。還有廢棄物。這聽起來很荒謬，但廢棄電子產品每噸所含的黃金比金礦石本身還要多——我們的垃圾比我們的礦山更富有。

氣候變遷是我們已知極為嚴峻的另一個挑戰——但真正的震撼在於及時採取行動所需的經濟投入規模。在建議的時間框架內減少溫室氣體排放，將需要富裕國家每年 GDP 的 15% 到 20%——這大致相當於盟軍為贏得第二次世界大戰所動員的資源。這種規模的數字絕非抽象：它們將改變日常生活。

在每一個熟悉的故事背後，史密爾都揭示了能夠重塑過去、衝擊我們對當下看法，並改變我們思考未來方式的統計數據。

From the internationally bestselling author, a revealing look at the surprising numbers that uncover the hidden forces shaping our world

‘There is perhaps no other academic who paints pictures with numbers like Smil’ Guardian

What do marriage, milk and the black market tell us about the state of humanity? Most people would say, not much at all. But the numbers reveal startling truths about who we are, how we live and where we’re headed. For centuries we’ve told ourselves stories about how the world works – yet the data often point to a very different reality. In Numbers Tell Stories, Vaclav Smil shows how statistics challenge conventional thinking and illuminate the hidden forces shaping our lives.

Take marriage. Weren’t people in the past married off as children? In fact, in eighteenth-century France, the median age was 29 for men and 27 for women – not that different to today. Or longevity. Should we look to Japan to unlock the secrets of a long, healthy life? Perhaps – but only one in five Japanese men and women retains full independence in old age. Even the world’s healthiest nation still has far to go. And waste. It sounds absurd, but discarded electronics contain more gold per ton than gold ore itself – our rubbish is richer than our mines.

Climate change is another challenge we know is huge – but the real shock is the scale of the economic effort required to act in time. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions on the recommended timescale would demand 15 to 20 per cent of annual GDP in wealthy countries – roughly equivalent to the resources mobilised by the Allies to win the Second World War. Numbers on that scale are not abstract: they would transform daily life.

Behind every familiar story, Smil uncovers the statistics that can reframe the past, jolt our view of the present, and change how we think about the future.