防詐3要訣：不聽信、不操作、掛斷電話 
The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
內容簡介
《可能是英國最偉大的在世統計學家》——《每日電訊報》
來自英國的「國寶級統計學家」，一本聰明且數據驅動的指南，教導我們如何面對風險與不確定性。
我們生活在一個不確定性無可避免的世界裡。那麼，我們應該如何應對未知的事物呢？機會、運氣和巧合在我們的生活中扮演了什麼角色？
大衛·斯皮格霍特爾（David Spiegelhalter）職業生涯中一直致力於分析數據，以理解風險並評估未來可能發生的事件。在《不確定的藝術》這本書中，他為讀者提供了一個視窗，教導我們如何更好地應對這些問題。
他以引人入勝且清晰的文筆，帶領我們了解概率的原則，展示這些原則如何幫助我們以更分析的方式看待從醫療建議到疫情和氣候變化預測等各類議題，並探討我們如何在面對不斷變化的經驗時，更新我們對未來的信念。在此過程中，他解釋了為什麼大約40%的足球比賽結果取決於運氣而非天賦，如何通過《國家風險登記冊》來評估英國的短期風險，以及為什麼我們可以如此確信兩副經過正確洗牌的撲克牌從未有過完全相同的排序。
這本書引用了各種引人入勝的現實範例，是一本在面對不確定性時不可或缺的指南，同時也教導我們要有謙卑的心態，承認我們所不知道的事物。
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph
From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty
We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?
David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.
In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.
Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know
作者介紹
大衛·斯皮格霍特爾爵士教授 (Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter) FRS OBE 是劍橋大學的統計學榮譽教授。他的暢銷書《統計的藝術》已被翻譯成十一種語言出版。他於2014年因對醫學統計的貢獻被授予爵士勳銜，曾擔任皇家統計學會會長（2017–2018），並於2020年成為英國統計局的非執行董事。
About the Author
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge. His bestselling book The Art of Statistics has been published in eleven languages. He was knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, was President of the Royal Statistical Society (2017 – 2018) and became a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority in 2020.
各界推薦
National treasure status… Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging ― without being patronising ― introduction to the mathematics of the unknown ― The Times
Timely... the distinguished statistician shows how simple arithmetic can impose order on the risks that are an integral part of life... One of academia’s best communicators.. this book.. impose(s) some intellectual order on a subject area that is rife with incomprehension, imprecision, contradiction and creative obfuscation -- John Naughton ― Observer
This is, without doubt, the most beautifully crafted book of its kind. These pages are rich with stories from 50 years of hard earned wisdom, each packed with insight and bursting with wit and warmth. When put together there is an important and compelling narrative about uncertainty here, this is a book that challenges our assumptions and offers new perspectives on how to embrace it -- Hannah Fry, author of HELLO WORLD
David Spiegelhalter is a national treasure, and this might be his wisest, most humane and most personal book. I urge you to read it -- Tim Harford, author of HOW TO MAKE THE WORLD ADD UP
A superbly entertaining overview of uncertainty in all its manifestations -- Professor David J Hand, author of THE IMPROBABILITY PRINCIPLE
The Art of Uncertainty contains a lifetime of wisdom from a true master. No one else can do what David Spiegelhalter does, and take this foggiest but most ubiquitous of human problems, then give it such order, rigour, and impeccable judgement. There’s science, philosophy, medicine, statistics… life… all wrapped in a light and human touch, with one-line insights to die for. I wish it had existed 40 years ago; I suspect it’ll still be keenly read in 40 years time -- Michael Blastland, co-author of THE TIGER THAT ISN'T
This is a brilliant book. A must read for anyone who aspires to think intelligently about the world we live in. Uncertainty is all-pervasive: in our personal lives; in responding to social and political issues; in sorting truth from fiction; and in understanding and mitigating global challenges. David Spiegelhalter provides the tools for thinking about all aspects of uncertainty in a rational way -- Sir Adrian Smith FRS
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