The End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration | 誠品線上

The End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration

內容簡介

內容簡介 ✰ 衛報、泰晤士報好評推薦 ✰複雜科學家圖爾欽把科學帶入歷史，將大量數據導入計量模型，預測未來社會演進。本書為其研究巔峰之作，闡明何為鞏固政治群體的條件、何為導致政治群體崩解的因素。----------------對複雜科學家圖爾欽而言，未來可以預測。早在二〇一〇年，圖氏便使用計量模型推測：美國正處於社會解體漩渦，政治秩序可能因而於二〇二〇年左右崩潰。其後的發展印證了他的推測。他在本書中近一步闡明：隨著收入急遽不平等，財富不成比例地流入菁英手中，全社會為成為菁英愈加瘋狂，以至於讓反菁英政客有可乘之機激化衝突造成社會、政治解體。A brilliant new theory of how society works from one of the most iconoclastic thinkers of our timeWhat leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? How do elites maintain their dominant position? And why do ruling classes sometimes suddenly lose their grip on power?For decades, complexity scientist Peter Turchin has been studying world history like no-one else. Assembling vast databases mined from 10,000 years of human activity, and then developing new models, he has transformed the way we learn from the past. End Times is the result: a ground-breaking account of how society works.The lessons, he argues, are clear. When the balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, income inequality surges. The rich get richer, the poor further impoverished. As more people try to join the elite, frustration with the establishment brims over, often with disastrous consequences. Elite overproduction led to state breakdown in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War - and it is happening now.But while we are far along the path toward violent political rupture, Turchin's models also light the way to a brighter future. Drawing insight from those occasions in history where the balance was restored, End Times also points towards a different future: an escape from the patterns of the past.

各界推薦

各界推薦 "History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable": so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable - by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it -- Jared Diamond, author of Guns, Germs and SteelPeter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book -- Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in EconomicsScintillating. . . Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to ― Publishers WeeklyThe future-gazing guru I find the most intriguing is a former biologist called Peter Turchin who calls this decade 'the turbulent twenties'. . . He is a complexity scientist who has many fans among rich and powerful people -- Helen Lewis ― BBC Radio 4Extraordinary. . . Turchin is a practitioner of "cliodynamics," an ambitious attempt to apply complexity theory and much else to human history. End Times is the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work -- Niall Ferguson ― BloombergTurchin is the academic of the moment -- Janan Ganesh ― Financial TimesMr Turchin is something of a celebrity in certain circles and has piqued economists' interest in the discipline of "cliodynamics", which uses maths to model historical change ― Economist

作者介紹

作者介紹 Peter TurchinPeter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, Research Associate at University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut. Trained as a theoretical biologist, he is now working in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call Cliodynamics. Currently his main research effort is directed at coordinating CrisisDB, a massive historical database of societies sliding into a crisis - and then emerging from it. His books include Ultrasociety and Ages of Discord.

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最佳賣點

最佳賣點 : A brilliant new theory of how society works from one of the most iconoclastic thinkers of our time