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雜訊: 人類判斷的缺陷

內容簡介

內容簡介 《快思慢想》作者、百萬暢銷書作家康納曼《推出你的影響力》作者Cass R. Sunstein《不當決策》作者Olivier Sibony三人聯手推出：我們該如何做出更好的決策!?兩個醫生對一名病患做出不同診斷；兩名法官對一個案件做出不同判決...有人的地方就有雜訊：本書揭示錯誤決策會產生多大的代價，以及人們如何被偏見影響而做出錯誤決定。透過一些簡單的方法，即可學會如何避免錯誤決定及事後彌補付出的代價。人們每天都需要有意識、無意識的做出幾千個決定：有的小到我們根本沒察覺的瞬間判斷；有的大到足以影響一生。無論是哪種，對我們都相當重要。但只要有決策，就會有雜訊。★博客來、誠品一致選書推薦社會充斥很多不合理的情況，像是不同法官對同一個案件卻有截然不同的判決、不同醫師對同一個病人的診斷有很大的差異、不同面試官對於是否錄取求職者意見大不相同，甚至就連同一個法官、醫師與面試官在不同的時間也會做出不同的判斷。為什麼會這樣？因為，只要有判斷，就會有「雜訊」而且在日常生活中，雜訊比你以為的還要多丹尼爾．康納曼、奧利維．席波尼、凱斯．桑思汀三位行為科學家發現，在醫學、法律、經濟預測、法醫鑑識、保釋、兒童保護、策略、績效評估、個人選擇等領域，都看得到雜訊，但是一般人和組織都沒有意識到這個問題，結果是付出高昂的代價、公共安全與衛生受到影響、社會還會出現極端不公平的情況。本書中，作者從各領域的實例中拆解雜訊出現的原因，並提供幾項決策保健策略，幫助讀者預防決策雜訊。雜訊與偏誤一樣，都是人類必須迫切正視的問題唯有正視雜訊與偏誤的存在，並做好決策保健工作才能迎向決策錯誤更少、更公平、更健康的社會From the multi-million copy bestselling author of Thinking Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman, the co-author of the million-copy bestseller Nudge Cass Sunstein, and the eminent professor and writer on strategic thinking Olivier Sibony, a new book about how to make better decisions.We make thousands of decisions every day, from minute choices we don’t even know we’re making up to great, agonising deliberations. But when every decision we make is life-changing, the way we reach them matters. And for every decision, there is noise.This book teaches us how to understand all the extraneous factors that impact and bias our decision-making – and how to combat them and improve our thinking. Filled with new science, fascinating case studies and revealing practical examples, the skills this book teaches can be readily used by private or public institutions, by schools, hospitals, businesses, judges and in our everyday lives.｜各界好評｜《雜訊》是我這十幾年來讀過的書當中最重要的一本。作者提出全新的想法。這想法極為重要，你恨不得馬上付諸實踐。──《恆毅力》（Grit）作者 安琪拉．達克沃斯（Angela Duckworth）行為科學書籍的四個黃金標準是：見解新穎、證據嚴謹、文筆洗練、能實際應用。很少有一本書能達到兩個標準，但《雜訊》四者皆具，有如打出全壘打一般。準備面對這三位思想翹楚提供的閱讀震撼，讓他們幫助你重新思索如何評估別人、做決定和解決問題。──《給予》（Giving）作者 亞當．格蘭特（Adam Grant）雜訊是對大眾看不到的龐大社會問題進行非常精采的調查。──《蘋果橘子經濟學》（Freakonomics）共同作者 史蒂芬．李維特（Steven Levitt）在《雜訊》中，三位作者以獨特、新穎的角度，切入人類在各個領域的判斷問題：從《魔球》教練到中央銀行總裁、軍事指揮官，乃至國家元首。《雜訊》是一項偉大的成就，是心理學領域的里程碑。──《超級預測》（Superforecasting）作者 菲利普．泰特洛克（Philip E. Tetlock）本中文書介出自《雜訊: 人類判斷的缺陷》遠見天下文化出版股份有限公司出版"

作者介紹

作者介紹 Daniel KahnemanDaniel Kahneman is an Israeli psychologist and economist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. He is the sole author of the international bestseller Thinking Fast and Slow.Olivier SibonyOlivier Sibony is a professor, writer and keynote speaker specializing in the quality of strategic thinking and the design of decision processes. He teaches at HEC Paris and is an Associate Fellow at Oxford University.Cass R. SunsteinCass Sunstein is the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard, where he is founder and director of the Program on Behavioral Economics and Public Policy. A columnist for Bloomberg View, a frequent witness before Congress, and an informal adviser to many public officials in national, state, and local governments, he has served as Administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, as a member of the President's Review Group on Intelligence and Communications Technologies, and as an Attorney-Adviser in the U.S. Department of Justice. His many books include the bestseller Nudge (with Richard H. Thaler), Simpler: The Future of Government, and Republic.com.

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