How to Win a Trade War: An Optimistic Guide to an Anxious Global Economy

諾貝爾經濟學獎得主保羅•克魯曼(Paul Krugman)、《晶片戰爭》作者Chris Miller推薦。

兩位擁有熱門經濟學播客的頂尖貿易專家，主張在全球最大經濟體之間建立一種全新的運作方式。

過去，我們對貿易習以為常，如今已不復如此。

我們對貿易的一切認知都已改變。隨著川普的關稅政策攪動全球局勢，這本書正是解釋這場動盪的關鍵之作。當我們進入這個新的貿易衝突時代，需要在世界主要經濟體之間採取全新的運作方式。貿易專家蘇瑪雅・凱恩斯（Soumaya Keynes）與查德・鮑恩（Chad Bown）指出，既然既有規則已被拋棄，就必須採用不同的策略。一味期盼舊有方式恢復運作已不可行。作者最終主張，若要建立一套保護以市場為導向的民主國家、並能與中國體系抗衡的西方制度，就必須採納某些具有中國特色的工具。若我們希望避免演變為動用槍枝、無人機與戰爭的衝突，就需要更深入理解這些「武器」，正如本書所闡述的。

作者帶領讀者巡覽各類產品與供應鏈，從金屬到壽司，並探討貿易與貿易中斷對勞工與消費者的影響。他們追蹤一支口紅的旅程：塑膠外殼在中國製造，在墨西哥填充內容物，經由德州倉庫中轉後運往加拿大；他們也描繪一條電子產品供應鏈：從阿帕拉契山脈取得矽原料，在日本製成晶圓，在台灣利用荷蘭設備製成晶片，再到中國組裝成智慧型手機，最終銷往美國。

他們進一步推測全面經濟戰可能呈現的樣貌：如果全球關鍵航道被封鎖會如何？如果衛星通訊中斷呢？若出口管制切斷關鍵產品供應又會怎樣？屆時，關稅或許反而只是最輕微的問題。

這本及時且易於理解的著作，幫助讀者在這個全球經濟充滿不確定的關鍵時刻，看清自己、所屬企業以及國家在整體局勢中的位置。


Two top trade experts with popular economics podcasts argue for a new way of operating between the biggest economic powers in the world.

We used to take trade for granted. No more.

Everything we know about trade has changed. With Trump’s tariffs throwing everything up in the air, this is the book to explain the eruption. As we enter this new era of trade conflict, we need a new way of operating between the biggest economic powers in the world. Trade experts Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown argue that now that the rules of the game have been abandoned, we need a different strategy. Yearning for the old approach to start working again isn’t an option. Ultimately, the authors argue that a Western system that protects market-oriented democracies from China’s one will require the embrace of some uniquely Chinese tools. If we want to avoid a war with guns, drones, and battles, then we need to understand these weapons better in How to Win a Trade War.

The authors give a tour of products and supply chains, from metals to sushi, and the impact of trade—and trade disruptions—on workers and consumers. They follow a lipstick with plastic casing manufactured in China, filled in Mexico, and then shipped to Canada after stopping off at a Texan warehouse. They trace an electronics supply chain from silicon sourced in the Appalachian Mountains, to “wafers” made in Japan, to chips made in Taiwan using equipment made in the Netherlands, to smartphones assembled in China and sent to America.

They speculate what all-out economic warfare might look like. What if the world’s key shipping lanes got blocked? Or satellite communication went down? What about export restrictions cutting off supplies of key products? Tariffs could be the least of our problems.

This timely and accessible book helps readers understand how they, their company, and their country fit into the story at this precarious moment for the global economy.