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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
201510月 

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
超級預測: 洞悉思考的藝術與科學, 在不確定的世界預見未來優勢


作者  /  Philip E. Tetlock/ Dan Gardner 菲利普.泰特洛克/ 丹.賈德納

出版社 / CROWN

出版日期 / 2015/09/29

商品語言 / 英文

裝訂 / 平裝

定價 / NT$599

售價 / NT$ 599 ※ 特價商品,不再折扣

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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 其它優惠/消息


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內容簡介

為什麼有人的預測能力就是這麼強?
預測能力有辦法藉由後天習得嗎?
第一本提供有效方式、改善預測未來的能力的書!

世界知名社會科學家、美國賓州大學華頓商學院教授Philip E. Tetlock在本書中,探討人類的思考習慣如何促成最佳預測結果!

「Philip Tetlock是這項重要主題的世界專家。Superforecasting是一個關於他和他的研究團隊如何在嚴肅的比賽中,讓平凡人贏過專家的精采故事。此書也是一本教人如何在不確定的世界裡,清晰思考的指南。快去讀這本書。」—— Daniel Kahneman,諾貝爾獎得主、《快思慢想》作者

作者提到,2005年一項具指標性的調查指出,連預測專家的預測也只比亂猜好一點。然而,有一個重要結論並沒有受到應有的重視:有一些專家的確具有先見之明,而Tedlock在過去的10年間一直嘗試解開這個謎。

在本書中,Tedlock與共同作者Dan Gardner在數十年的研究 “The Good Judgment Project” 及由政府補助的大型預測比賽中,徵募了成千上萬的平凡人參加,其中包括電影導演、退休管路安裝工人、前國標舞舞者,讓他們預測國際事件。驚人的是,有一些參與者的預測結果出奇的突出,打敗其他的預測基準、預測市場,甚至贏過能取得機密資訊的情報分析師的共同判斷。他們,是「超級預測員」。

在這本開創先鋒且簡單明瞭的書中,作者教導讀者如何從這些「超級預測員」身上學習。他們提出諸多成功預測的案例,採訪許多高階決策員,包括美國前中央情報局局長David Petraeus與前美國財政部長Robert Rubin,告訴讀者,做出好的預測不一定需要依靠超級電腦或秘訣。重點在於,如何從各種資源中擷取證據、用概率統計方式思考、以團隊為單位運作、記分、以及願意承認錯誤並改正。想改善慘不忍睹的預測能力嗎?現在就快來閱讀Superforecasting,讓成為預測高手不再遙不可及!

From one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions
 
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
 
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
 
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.







詳細資料

誠品26碼 /2681116525007
ISBN 13 /9781101905562
ISBN 10 /1101905565
EAN /9781101905562

頁數336
尺寸23.4X15.5X2CM
裝訂平裝
級別
語言英文
成份




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